martes, 24 de junio de 2014

1.      Introduction
To do this research I was working with information from different newspapers to explain the context in which the current Iraqi situation or scenario was created. It is about a civil war. I will try to clear the situation and then I will try to offer some kind of negotiated solution.

2.      The context
The context in Iraq from December 2013 to June 2014 is a Civil War between many actors. In one side we can find the Maliki’s government, in the other there are many forces are identified, the ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria), the former Baaz officers and generals, parts of the Sadam Hussein’s army, moderate Islamic ulemas and movements, tribal groups and the people opposite to the regime.
The State created after the US occupation is a sectarian State dominated by a Shi’i government. During 2011 appear pacific manifestations against corruption and sectarian policies that denied the option to Sunni parts to have a role in government. Maliki’s regime bombarded the protesters during the following year, Hawiya in April and Ramahdi in December[1]. In addition other problems are “the lack of basic supplies as Education, Health Service, Human Rights violation, unemployment”[2].     
The situation has a main actor, the ISIS. It was created in 2004 as Monotheism and Jihad Group, and then they united to Al-Qaeda the same year. Not much time ago the new called ISIS has split up its relation with Al-Qaeda. It is suppose that the ISIS is more radical than Al-Qaeda.
 In December 2013 the ISIS’ army took Faluya, in al-Anbar province. During February the Iraqi army bombarded Faluya to take it, but it failed. Using as pretext the manifestations and ISIS offensive in al-Anbar province the Maliki’s regime has begun to describe the scenario as a terrorist situation to provide an international support to the regime and to present himself as and an anti-terrorist fighter[3], even if he has bombarded the pacific protestors.
10 June 2014, the ISIS took Mosul and its province of Niniveh[4]. After the first confused news the action seems clearer. It was an alliance between many forces. It is mainly an alliance between the ISIS and the Baaz group of Ezzat Ibrahim al-Douri. In fact the current governor of Mosul is Azhar al-Obeidi, former general of Sadam’s army[5]. With the occupation of Mosul the ISIS has took heavy vehicles, tanks, weapons and ammunition, and 3 helicopters[6]. Few hours after the fall of Mosul the ISIS occupied Tikrit.
Nowadays the ISIS is a strength army which fights in Syria and Iraq. In according to Charles Lister, Brookings Doha Centre researcher, the ISIS has 6000 fighters in Iraq and other 7000 in Syria. In the first State they can fight against the week Iraqi army, but in Syria, where the control a half of Aleppo, are contained by al-Assad’s forces because in the second case they fight against a united army which counts with an operative air force[7]

This is the territory occupied by the ISIS.
The international situation is extremely complicated. The US said that they cannot, neither to take part with this Army, but the president sent an aircraft carrier to the Gulf[9]. Iran has sent adviser and three brigades of Iranian Republican Guard to Bagdad, where the Iraqi army is entrench itself against a possible offensive from the ISIS. The Chinese and Russian governments have offered their support to legitimate government of Iraq.

3.      Final Scenarios
An option, suggested by several experts, was to divide Iraq in three parts, the Kurdish State, the Sunni State and a Shii State. But this idea implies to negotiate with a considered terrorist group. Iran cannot lose its ally.
Another scenario could be the entire occupation of Iraq by the Baaz-ISIS forces to create a new State, with a half or entire Syria. This option means that the States will not do any form of intervention in Iraq. But this could create a strong State with access to petroleum from Mosul and Kirkuk and sea borders in the Mediterranean Sea and Persian Gulf. In addition it does not offer an ending of sectarian violence between Iraqis.

4.      Who are the possible actors to negotiate? How should the negotiation be done?
The Bagdad regime of Nouri al-Maliki, recently re-elected prime minister of Iraq and a coalition of the other forces. These forces are the protestors of northern-centre part of Iraq, the tribes, the Iraqi Revolution Military Council (which groups the military councils of former army), the Patriotic Nationalist and Islamic Front (around the Baaz party) Muslim Ulema Organization.
I believe in this war scenario it is impossible to send an army force, even if this force come from Chapter VII of UN Charter. The UN will not impose targeted sanctions against the money and arms suppliers because, if we accept the information, are Dubai and Saudi Arabia[10], important allies of the US.
In this scenario many actors should work as a whole: UN, Arabian League, Iran, Turkey, Kurdish Autonomous Region of Iraq, to perform and persuasion negotiation. Following the testimonies of Iraqi people they only want a State without a foreign occupation, the end of civil war, the building of core services and a plenty politic pacification without a sectarian and corrupted policy.
To reunite the parts, to accord an armistice, and to begin peace conversations it is necessary to sit ensemble the parts, and to establish a new Constitution written by all the Iraqi groups. It is the only way to stop the terrorist offensive against Iraq and to stop the dangerous alliance between the Baaz and the ISIS. 






[8] Ibid.
[10] Hanan al-Fatlaavi, Member of the Parlament, said that Saudi Arabia is giving a military and financial support to Islamits. “The Syrian cannel Al-Ikhbariya has informed that Iraqi Security Forces has classied papers which shows how several terrorit operations have been performed by Saudi mercenaries” , source: http://www.noticiaspia.org/al-maliki-declara-estado-de-emergencia-en-irak-tras-ataques-de-terroristas-del-eiil/

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